My Longshot Bets to Win the World Series: It's a tradition I skipped last year, even though I was coming off at least one semi-good call in pointing out the 2007 Mariners had too much promise to be 90-1. And for you betters out there, never forget that my past picks have included the 100-1 payoff 2003 Florida Marlins. Onward and downward, with the arts!

3) Kansas City Royals, 80-1. Oh, I don't think the Royals are much more than a .500 team (a level of mediocrity they've reached -- barely -- just once in 14 years), but the AL Central has gone from great to brutal in a hurry. The White Sox are old, slow, and ready for collapse. The Twins are great but their should-been-MVP-twice-already is on the DL, and their diaper-wearing rotation is poised to turn back into a pumpkin. And speaking of flashes in the pan, the Indians benefited last year from the one-off luck of having the alien being of 1978 Ron Guidry inhabit Cliff freakin' Lee for a season, and yet still only managed to break even. The Tigers have serious pitching and defense issues, and will likely look to slash payroll as the season progresses.

What do the Royals have going for them? Not a ton. Zack Greinke looks like a fine young pitcher, Gil Meche has been one of the AL's best starters the past two years, and the rest of the rotation is young & has upside. The defense should be very good and improved, with the phenomenal Covelli Loyce Crisp coming over to play CF, and 38-year-old Mark Grudzielanek giving way at 2B to the speedy former Angel farmhand Alberto Callaspo. Mike Jacobs will hit a helluva lot more home runs than the awful Ross Gload.

If Coco at 29 can hit anywhere near as good as he did at 24-25; if Mark Teahen can do likewise at age 27, if Alex Gordon looks more like the next Howard Johnson than the next Darnell Coles, and if Mike Aviles really is a .325/.354/.480-hitting shotrstop ... then this team will surprise some people.

2) At 100-1, your Texas Rangers. According to the the odds I'm using, anyway, the following teams tie for least likely to win the World Series -- the Pirates, Padres, Nationals, Astros, and Rangers. One of these does not look like the others.

First of all, the American League West is, no matter how else you slice it, the only four-team division in the major leagues. The stubbornly awful Pirates and bare-cupboard Astros, by comparison, have to compete in a division of six. It really ain't fair, and I'm surprised more people don't squawk about it, but the fact remains that it's just an awful lot easier to luck into a division crown over in Ichiro's Beanie Sciosciaville. Since the most recent expansion a decade ago, just three of the six teams in the NL Central have won the division; all four of the AL West have taken turns on top.

Secondly, though the division has largely been a two-team dogfight since 2002, Oakland's rotation has more anonymous, green-around-the-ears 20somethings than Adams Morgan on a Friday night, and the Angels are starting the year with seemingly every starting pitcher in team history, including but not limited to Jack Lazorko, on the disabled list. Things could easily go pear-shaped on both clubs, and meanwhile Texas is broadly pointed in the right direction, with most of its good hitters 28 and younger, and if they could get any starting pitching they'd win some games.

1) Oakland A's, 40-1. Really? 40-1? A perenially contending and innovatively run team that everyone agrees has improved drastically in a division whose defending champeen outwon its Pythagorean projection by 12 games and then let a half-dozen Type A free agents walk? I know their rotation is suspect, but do you know how many different starting pitchers not named Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Haren, or Harden have given Billy Beane 20 starts of at least ERA+ 95 ball since 2000? Eleven. Not different seasons, but different men -- Kevin Appier, Gil Heredia, Cory Lidle, Ted Lilly, Mark Redman, Kirk Saarloos, Lenny DiNardo, Chad Gaudin, Joe Blanton, Justin Duchscherer, and Greg Smith. Beane is better than anyone in baseball at finding warm bodies to throw league-average innings for cheap in that sterilized cavern of his, and for the last half-decade has been putting a world-class defense behind them. And this year, for the first time in a while, this team will hit.

OK! Stay tuned for preseason picks tomorrow, and get ready to add yours in the comments. Happy baseballs!

04/04/2009 07:42 PM  |  Comment (1)

Hi! What are you doing down here?